Category: Statistics

A Career in Agriculture May be One of Your Better Choices

More economic data supports an increasingly talked about practical career choice:  agriculture.   Most students do not even consider the study of agriculture.  Most schools/colleges do not even offer agriculture related courses even if one wanted to pursue this field of study. The government statistics on the topic reflect this unpopularity.  The most recent available U.S. Department of Agriculture’s census …

Continue reading

Permanent link to this article: https://betweenthenumbers.net/2013/02/a-career-in-agriculture-may-be-one-of-your-better-choices/

Fumbling the Interpretation: Statistical Models and the Super Bowl

Predictionmachine.com generated a statistical model for the 2013 Super Bowl that reports a 67% probability of the 49ers winning. The probability of this outcome is different than predicting that the 49ers in fact will win. Yet such simplistic, and incorrect, interpretations are common to  Monte Carlo style models (the type of model run by Predictionmachine.com). …

Continue reading

Permanent link to this article: https://betweenthenumbers.net/2013/02/fumbling-the-interpretation-statistical-models-and-the-super-bowl/

Whether Simulating Super Bowls or Financial Portfolios, the Assumptions Matter

Statistical models are created by identifying influential random variables and then assigning characteristics to those variables. In the case of football, how many rushing yards the 49ers will gain is a random variable. So is the number of interceptions the Ravens will make. The formulation of a statistical model involves identifying the most important of …

Continue reading

Permanent link to this article: https://betweenthenumbers.net/2013/01/whether-simulating-super-bowls-or-financial-portfolios-the-assumptions-matter/

67% Chance the 49ers Will Win, Pretty Good Chance the Prediction is No Good

Predictionmachine.com ran 50,000 iterations of its statistical model to give a 67% chance the San Francisco 49ers will win the Super Bowl. Such a large number (50,000 iterations) and “computer model” may create an impression of validity and sophistication about the prediction. This could be a false impression. The output from a statistical model is …

Continue reading

Permanent link to this article: https://betweenthenumbers.net/2013/01/67-chance-the-49ers-will-win-pretty-good-chance-the-prediction-is-no-good/

High School Graduation Rate Highest Since 1976

A study of the 2010 school year by the Education Department shows that the nation’s four-year high school graduation rate is the highest it has been since 1976. The national dropout rate has also fallen to about three percent overall. Many students who don’t finish their coursework in four years instead take five or more …

Continue reading

Permanent link to this article: https://betweenthenumbers.net/2013/01/high-school-graduation-rate-highest-since-1976/

Super Bowl XLVII Expected to Flood New Orleans

This past Sunday, the San Francisco 49ers battled their way uphill from an early 17-0 losing position and still managed to defeat the Atlanta Falcons 28 to 24 in a particularly exciting game. Now the 49ers look to steal the silver right from underneath the Baltimore Ravens’ noses in their quest for the Vince Lombardi …

Continue reading

Permanent link to this article: https://betweenthenumbers.net/2013/01/super-bowl-xlvii-expected-to-flood-new-orleans/

The decline in California’s exodus fizzles out

The good news for California is that not as many of its residents are leaving the state now as they were six or seven years ago. The bad news is that the exodus continues to march onward, together with its domestic migration gap, which has remained steady over the past several years. 2006 saw the …

Continue reading

Permanent link to this article: https://betweenthenumbers.net/2012/12/the-decline-in-californias-exodus-fizzles-out/

Fed reports a significant decline in net worth under two measures, but in different amounts

Last week, the media quickly dispersed the jaw dropping statistic just released by the Federal Reserve in its Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF):  household median net worth fell by almost 40% from 2007 to 2010, the mean fell almost 15%.   According to SCF, the median inflation adjusted net family worth (i.e.,  the value of its home(s), bank account(s) and retirement …

Continue reading

Permanent link to this article: https://betweenthenumbers.net/2012/06/fed-reports-a-significant-decline-in-net-worth-under-two-measures-but-in-different-amounts/

The Quiet Surge in Bond Prices

Just recently, long term bond yields have been on the rise. Specifically, ten year Treasury bond yields just hit a five month high on Monday, March 19, 2012. (Late October 2011 was the last time it was higher.) Despite this recent yield hike, almost no one is talking about it. However, if this rising trend …

Continue reading

Permanent link to this article: https://betweenthenumbers.net/2012/03/the-quiet-surge-in-bond-prices/

Duran class action reversal not near as important as suggested

In California multiple (usually defense-oriented) articles are being published about the importance of a class action trail reversal in re: Duran v. US Bank National Association, California Court of Appeal, 1st Appellate Dist., (February 6, 2012). The articles incorrectly claim that statistical sampling cannot be used to prove liability in a class action case. The …

Continue reading

Permanent link to this article: https://betweenthenumbers.net/2012/03/duran-class-action-reversal-not-near-as-important-as-suggested/