Does anyone NOT know the key differences between CA versus TX? Anyone…?

Both the business and residential climates in California versus Texas are long known to be diametrically opposed: one is a more progressive state advocating social justice at a “cost” of higher taxes and more regulations while the other espouses lower taxes and less regulations while advocating individual responsibility.   Despite this well-known, long standing difference, Governor Perry of …

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United States Postal Service Cancels Saturday Mail Delivery

On February 6, 2013, the United States Postal Service (USPS) announced that as of the week of August 5, 2013 it will suspend Saturday mail delivery (see: USPS Announcement).  This reduction in delivery is estimated to save the USPS approximately $2 billion annually. Patrick R. Donahoe, Postmaster General and CEO stated: The Postal Service is …

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Survey of Audit Committee Members Indicate Significant Concerns

KPMG recently released their Global Audit Committee Survey (See the KPMG survey here).  The survey contains the views of 1,800 audit committee members worldwide regarding topics such as financial reporting and disclosures, audit quality, oversight of internal and external auditors, risk management and crisis readiness, emerging technologies and audit committee effectiveness. The survey highlighted the …

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Fumbling the Interpretation: Statistical Models and the Super Bowl

Predictionmachine.com generated a statistical model for the 2013 Super Bowl that reports a 67% probability of the 49ers winning. The probability of this outcome is different than predicting that the 49ers in fact will win. Yet such simplistic, and incorrect, interpretations are common to  Monte Carlo style models (the type of model run by Predictionmachine.com). …

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The American Dream is Still Alive

The real estate market has taken a beating in the past few years.  During the most recent downturn in the economy, real estate values plummeted causing homeowners equity to vanish with many homeowners facing short-payoffs and even foreclosure.  Despite the more positive recent news regarding real estate, potential buyers are facing increased scrutiny from banks …

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Whether Simulating Super Bowls or Financial Portfolios, the Assumptions Matter

Statistical models are created by identifying influential random variables and then assigning characteristics to those variables. In the case of football, how many rushing yards the 49ers will gain is a random variable. So is the number of interceptions the Ravens will make. The formulation of a statistical model involves identifying the most important of …

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67% Chance the 49ers Will Win, Pretty Good Chance the Prediction is No Good

Predictionmachine.com ran 50,000 iterations of its statistical model to give a 67% chance the San Francisco 49ers will win the Super Bowl. Such a large number (50,000 iterations) and “computer model” may create an impression of validity and sophistication about the prediction. This could be a false impression. The output from a statistical model is …

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Personal Injury Lawsuits Against NFL Will Increase if Junior Seau’s Family is Successful

With the SuperBowl coming up next weekend and many players suffering from some sort of injury sustained during the season, the recent wrongful death lawsuit filed by the family of former pro football star Junior Seau may be getting more media coverage than usual.   Junior Seau retired from pro football in 2010 and committed suicide …

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Employee Theft of Office Supplies Can Really Add Up

An employee in the New York office of Fried, Frank, Harris, Shriver & Jacobson LLP  has been indicted for stealing more than $376,000 worth of copy machine toner over approximately two years.  The employee accomplished this by ordering excess toner from two vendors and effectively setting up a side business through which he sold the toner. …

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High School Graduation Rate Highest Since 1976

A study of the 2010 school year by the Education Department shows that the nation’s four-year high school graduation rate is the highest it has been since 1976. The national dropout rate has also fallen to about three percent overall. Many students who don’t finish their coursework in four years instead take five or more …

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